In 2021, the output of tin in Shanghai increased by 5.4% month-on-month. In 2022, the price of tin reached a new historical high!

Everyone should pay close attention to the ups and downs of tin prices. It is said that in the first half of this year, tin prices have been rising, which has exceeded the previous situation and is getting faster and faster. It has even developed into a new record since the beginning of the year15.18 The price of ten thousand yuan has been continuously rising, according to22 Just one step away, the increase in the first half of the year reached44.93%. And Renxi also started from the beginning of the year2.04 Tens of thousands of dollars have continued to rise3.2 Near Wan, the increase has reached56.86%. from2020 years3 Judging from the market trend over the past month, the strong rally of Shanghai Tin is still ongoing and has broken through the upper edge of the upward channel. The strong rally will continue, and the possibility of a significant decline in the second half of the year is small.

2022 In the year, starting from the supply side, the supply of tin ore in Indonesia and Malaysia gradually resumed, although 2021 Annual production restrictions cause significant disturbances. However, the annual sample refined tin output of Antaike reached 17.4 Ten thousand tons, an increase year-on-year 11.7%. Stimulated by high prices, after external disturbances ease in the New Year, the supply of both mines and ingots will continue to recover.

The US dollar index has continued to decline, while the prices of nonferrous metals have risen significantly, indicating that the market has digested the Fed's interest rate hikes or multiple rate hikes. In Xishi, the current operating rate of smelters in Yunnan has rebounded, while that in Guangxi remains stable.SMMStatistical data show that12The output of refined tin in China increased month-on-month in the month5.4%to1.4Ten thousand tons.1Due to the Spring Festival holiday and maintenance, the output is expected to decline significantly this month.　　Meanwhile, downstream customers have been stocking up in advance before the Spring Festival. As the holiday approaches, spot purchases will significantly decrease. That is to say, the Spring Festival factor has led to a short-term mismatch between production and sales. It is expected1-2The monthly tin price rose first and then fell. Although global tin inventories have rebounded from a low level at present, they remain at a low level. Moreover, the supply elasticity of the tin market is not significant, making it difficult for inventories to rise rapidly and significantly, which still provides support for tin prices.

Ore end: Due to the pandemic, Myanmar has been affected since last year11From January to January12The month's import ports were completely closed, affecting the import of tin ore4000Metal tons have a significant impact on domestic ore supply at the end of the year.12After the middle and late month, Myanmar's ports gradually resumed operations, and the impact of tin ore imports was gradually weakening. Currently, ore imports have basically recovered, and the tightness of domestic ore supply has eased compared to before. Smelting end: Entry1After the month, the resumption of Myanmar ore imports is conducive to the increase of the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan region. The resumption of production at Kaimeng also replenishes a certain amount of tin ingot supply. However, considering that the Spring Festival is approaching, smelters in Yunnan, Guangxi, Jiangxi and other places have all entered the holiday and production reduction stage. Therefore1The monthly supply will show a decrease compared with the previous month.

Now let's talk about the current market situation as reminded by relevant people. Regarding the suspension and reduction of production in the tin market, at present, some smelters in Jiangxi, Guangxi, Anhui and Yunnan all have plans to suspend and reduce production during the Spring Festival, and the resumption of production is basically after the Lantern Festival. This year, the downstream production halt during the Spring Festival was later than in previous years, and the seasonal inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival may fall short of expectations.

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